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127.Cropland abandonment under the socio-economic changes on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2020
Environmenta and Sustainabiity Indicators, December 2025
Chang Ge, Yuwei Wu, Han Wang, Guanglei Li, Ran Zhou, Jiangsheng Wu
126.Polarization of dryland vegetation response to spring flood
Jornal of Environment Management, August 2025
Shouguo Zhang, Han Wang, Xiwen Zhang, Guanglei Li, Ling Zhang, Chang Ge, Jiabin Wang, Jiansheng Wu, Jian Peng
Abstract:Dryland vegetation plays a pivotal role in the global ecosystem and is extraordinarily sensitive to water pulses, yet it is experiencing increasingly severe flooding. Floods have both significant beneficial and detrimental effects that may trigger extreme positive or negative responses in dryland vegetation compared to non-flooded areas, a phenomenon we call polarization, which threatens the stability of ecosystems. However, the characters and drivers of the polarized responses of dryland vegetation to spring floods remain unclear. Taking Central Asia—a typical and important dryland region—as a case, this study developed a Vegetation Response Index (VRI) and a threshold-based Polarization Index (PI) based on satellite remote sensing, and then integrated interpretable machine learning to investigate the drivers of vegetation polarization responses. The results indicate that vegetation in flood-affected areas exhibited much stronger positive and negative VRI compared to non-flooded areas, with an average of 28.6 % (positive) and 25.8 % (negative) of the pixels exceeding the polarization threshold. This polarization phenomenon was validated using two different vegetation indices (EVI and LAI) based on polarization magnitude, event occurrence rate, and consistency, all providing strong evidence for the polarized growth patterns of dryland vegetation after spring floods. The influencing factors have high interpretability for both positive and negative polarization (88.8 % and 90.2 % accuracy), with climatic factors being the determinant of whether polarization occurs. The key factors present three patterns of effect on polarization: intersection, threshold and range. These patterns characterize the environmental and climate conditions most likely to lead to polarization, explaining why some plants were able to adapt to flooding while others are succumbed. This study identifies and analyzes the polarized response of dryland vegetation to floods, providing vital insights for predicting and managing ecosystem vulnerability amidst increasing flood events.
125.Revealing future changes in China’s forest fire under climate change
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology， August 2025
Guanglei Li, Jiaying Hai, Jiazheng Qiu, Danni Zhang, Chang Ge, Hongliang Wang, Jiansheng Wu
Abstract: Forest fires, driven by global change, have become an increasingly severe concern for the future. To mitigate this uncertainty, understanding the projected response patterns of forest fires under climate change can provide valuable insights, especially in regions like China, where forest fires are prone to occur and highly sensitive to climate variations. This study used the Random Forest algorithm to develop predictive models for occurrence probability, intensity levels, and burned area of forest fires in China. These models were applied to future climate simulations under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, providing predictions for the mid-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100) periods with a comparative analysis against the baseline period (2001–2020) to assess relative changes. Results show that, by the end of the century, 60 % to 70 % of forested areas in China are projected to face increased fire risk, with the average percentage increase not exceeding 20 %, and most low-risk areas remaining at low risk. Nevertheless, the transition to moderate or high fire risk is particularly significant in the long term under SSP5–8.5, with hotspots such as the Greater Khingan Mountains, central and southeastern hilly regions, and the gorges of the western Yunnan Plateau. While fire intensity in most fire-prone areas is projected to remain at medium-to-low levels, localized intensification is possible in southwestern China. The increase in burned areas is projected to be widespread, covering 63 % to 64 % of fire-prone areas, with the greatest growth occurring in the mid-term and under SSP5–8.5. Compared to the southern regions, northeastern China shows a smaller proportion of areas experiencing increased burned areas but a larger total increase, indicating more concentrated fires in specific areas. These findings reveal the distinct future trajectories of different forest fire characteristics with regional variability in China, offering critical information for their comprehensive consideration and integration into forward-looking, scientifically robust national fire prevention planning.
Journal of Environmental Management，March 2025
Jiazheng Qiu; Zetan Ju; Han Wang; Jiansheng Wu
Abstract: Carbon neutrality has emerged as a global consensus in response to climate change, and land use/land cover (LULC) optimization is considered a crucial strategy for achieving this goal. In this context, China has proposed a dual carbon strategy of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving neutrality by 2060, which provides a policy framework for LULC optimization. However, existing studies on dual carbon goal-oriented LULC optimization often overlook potential ecological risks while emphasizing benefits and fail to fully explore the possible "double-edged sword effect" of LULC optimization. To address this gap, a multi-scenario, multi-objective integrated LULC optimization model was developed in this study, considering both 2030 carbon peaking and 2060 carbon neutrality. Landscape ecological risk (LER) was introduced as an additional evaluation dimension. Furthermore, an integrated three-dimensional (LER, carbon emissions, and carbon storage) evaluation system was established to identify key areas in Shanxi Province to achieve dual carbon goals. The results show that, compared to the natural development (ND) scenario, the optimized scenarios better balance economic and ecological value, reduce carbon emissions, and increase carbon storage, with the carbon neutrality (CN) scenario performing the best. However, LULC optimization also leads to an increase in the LER, particularly in the CN scenario. Furthermore, through the three-dimensional evaluation system, positive and negative areas for achieving the dual carbon goals in Shanxi Province were identified, including the discovery of a "Negative Belt" in the region. The findings emphasize the necessity of integrating policy considerations in the design of multi-objective and multi-scenario frameworks for LULC optimization research and highlight the importance of considering the unique perspective of LER.
Science of The Total Environment，December 2024
Guanglei Li, Han Wang，Shouguo Zhang，Chang Ge，Wu Jiansheng
Abstract: Climate and landscape structure are widely recognized as the primary drivers of soil erosion; however, the spatiotemporal variability of their effects remains insufficiently understood, limiting our comprehension of the dynamic processes of soil erosion. To address this gap, this study analyzed soil erosion trends on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2018. extreme Gradient Boosting was used to identify key climatic and landscape structural factors, while a geographically and temporally weighted regression model was applied to assess the spatiotemporal variability of these influences. The results indicate a decreasing trend in soil erosion from 2000 to 2008, followed by a sharp increase from 2008 to 2018. Grassland edge density emerged as the most important factor, followed closely by grassland percentage and annual precipitation. Temporally, the positive effect of annual precipitation has been intensifying since 2010, contributing to increased erosion, while landscape structural factors progressively enhanced their hydrological regulatory roles, reflecting dynamic interactions with climate. Spatially, the direction of climatic influences remained generally stable, consistently promoting erosion, although by 2018, the effects of average annual temperature and annual sunshine duration reversed to suppress erosion in specific areas. In contrast, landscape structural influences exhibited greater spatial variability, often fluctuating or reversing depending on topography, human activity, and land use. This variability applied specifically and differentially to each metric of fragmentation and diversity, highlighting the critical importance of trade-offs in landscape management. The findings emphasize the complexity and dynamics of soil erosion in response to climate and landscape structure, suggesting implications for the development of spatially targeted soil erosion control strategies that accommodate the phases of temporal variation.
Applied Geography, September 2024
Dongmei Xu, Jian Peng, Hong Jiang, Jianquan Dong, Menglin Liu, Yiyun Chen, Jiansheng Wu, Jeroen Meersmans
Abstract: Enhancing the connectivity of watershed ecological security patterns (ESPs) is increasingly emphasized for preserving ecological processes. Yet the importance of small-scale conservation and restoration was ignored and few studies have quantitatively compared the contribution of barriers restoration and stepping stones establishment to landscape connectivity. In this study, taking Dongting Lake Basin as an example, a watershed ESP was constructed based on the minimum cumulative resistance model and optimized through graded barriers restoration and different stepping stones establishment. Then the enhancement effects of landscape connectivity were compared to identify the most cost-effective optimization scheme. The results showed that the average of six schemes only protected and repaired less than 1% of the total area, which could enhance corridor connectivity by about 12% and 16% for average corridor length and corridor cumulative resistance respectively. For the optimal ESP, establishing natural patches near the midpoint of longer corridors as stepping stones, increased the probability of connectivity by 21.05%, and reduced the average corridor length and corridor cumulative resistance of corridor connectivity by 17.99% and 15.48% respectively. It also increased network circuitry index of network connectivity from 0.541 to 0.570, compared with the original ESP, indicating the possibility of successful ecological flow increased effectively. It can be concluded that the connectivity enhancement of stepping stones approach was better than barriers restoration approach. This study highlights the importance of small-scale barriers restoration and stepping stones establishment in enhancing landscape connectivity.
121.Unleashing Hidden Carbon Sequestration Potential: A Case Study of the Greater Bay Area, China
Urban Climate，July 2024
Keyu Luo, Zhenyu Wang, Weifeng Li, Jiansheng Wu
Abstract: Improving carbon sequestration through optimal land management is a vital nature-based strategy due to low cost and easy popularization. However, the potential carbon sequestration gains (PCSG) resulting from land management are not well understood. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the PCGS in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China. The actual and potential net primary production (PNPP) based on remote sensing and the Miami model from 2001 to 2020 was used to estimate carbon sequestration. The study utilized the landscape character unit to separate the environmental factors and land management differences, and focal statistics to estimate PCSG by comparing local PNPP with target NPP under optimal land management. The correlations between PCSG and accumulated area, carbon sequestration, and population density were analyzed. The results found that the PCSG flux is higher in suburban areas compared to urban and peripheral ecological areas, as well as higher in human landscapes than in natural landscapes. The PCSG was estimated to increase carbon sequestration by 35%. Optimal land management should be prioritized in 26.76% of the area to achieve half of the PCSG goal. This study revealed the importance of land management on carbon sequestration towards climate adaptation and carbon neutrality.
Journal of Environmental Management，May 2024
Han Wang, Danni Zhang, Xiwen Zhang, Chang Gao, Zhenyu Wang, Jiansheng Wu
Abstract: With the extensive industrialization and urbanization taking place in China during the recent decades, land use throughout the country has experienced profound changes influenced not only by the demand for population growth and living standard improvement but also by the constraints of series of land use policies. However, whether the conflict between the expansion of settlement land (SL) and the loss of cultivated land (CL) have been resolved at the national scale or transferred between the local regions remains unclear. Based on yearly ESA CCI land use and land cover products from 1992 to 2020, the long-term trends of quantity and spatial pattern of SL expansion and CL change in China from national and local views were investigated using trend statistic methods, and finally a comprehensive zoning framework was proposed to recognize the trade-off and synergies relationships between SL expansion and CL change. There are a continuous expansion of SL with global linear trends showing three breakpoints in 2000, 2005, and 2012, and a fluctuation decline of CL presented with four breakpoints in 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2013. Aggregation and dispersion tendencies with linear characteristics of SL expansion and CL change were found with breakpoints in 2001, 2008, 2012, and 2016 and breakpoints in 2001 and 2010, respectively. A spotty spatial pattern of SL was shown spatially coincident with urban agglomerations in China while the planar continuous characteristic was found for CL. Local counties were classified into five tradeoff and synergies zones (TSZs), where general synergies (G-S) and decoupling (D) of SL expansion and CL change were rare cases and the different change in quantity and trend of SL expansion and CL change in local counties was concealed by the national trend. A few scattered counties were belonging to G-S and D TSZs, while most of the counties in the central-east and western China were in General-Tradeoff (G-T) and Superior-Tradeoff (S-T) TSZs. Counties in south and north China with higher percentages of CL were more prevalent in Superior-Synergy (S–S) TSZ. Our findings explicated the complex relationships between SL expansion and CL change of China at the national scale and in local counties, which pointed out the differences of unified land use management activities across scales and could provide insights for future policy-making and management measures of land use to both ensure the national food security and promote regional sustainable development more synchronously.
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